Observing Thinking

Observing Thinking
Observing Thinking

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

The Internet, Fake News, and Confirmation Bias

 


The Internet, Fake News, and Confirmation Bias


“The spread of fake news is one of the biggest disadvantages of the internet. Since there are limited to no controls in place on a communication forum, website, or social media platform, fake news often goes viral - risking the well-being of entire communities. “ (unstop.com)


The quote, “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes” is often attributed to Mark Twain, but its origin is debated among scholars. Other people who have been attributed as the author include Jonathan Swift and Winston Churchill.

The idea behind the quote is that lies can spread quickly and easily, while the truth can be slow to catch up. This can be because people are more likely to believe something that is sensational or shocking, even if it is not true. Lies and other fake news can also be spread more easily through social media and other online platforms on (you guessed it) the Internet. And it is precisely fake news that contributes to a more primal defect in the human psyche: Confirmation Bias. If you happen to be a human being, you are subject to confirmation bias in your choice of politics, or anything else.


 Unfortunately, Confirmation Bias acts like addiction and like any addiction, the first step is awareness --- to acknowledge its existence in much the same manner as Alcoholics Anonymous encourages its members: “My name is _____ and I am an Alcoholic. My name is Stewart Denenberg and I have Confirmation Bias.


 Before proceeding it would be prudent to be sure that we’re on the same page regarding the definition of “confirmation bias”. I decided to use an AI to do the scut work for me and below is my query followed by the Microsoft Copilot response:


“What is confirmation bias”

I asked CoPilot the same question once again, ““What is confirmation bias” and got a more detailed response:

  1. Definition and Nature:

  2. Historical Roots:

  3. Examples and Practical Contexts:

  4. Utility or Disutility:

    • Is confirmation bias helpful or harmful? It’s a complex question.

    • On one hand, it can reinforce our convictions and provide cognitive shortcuts.

In summary, confirmation bias is a ubiquitous cognitive tendency that shapes how we perceive the world. Being aware of it can help us approach information more critically and open-mindedl”

Well, then, I mused, why does Copilot give me different answers to the same question? Who better to ask?  and Copilot’s response was:

“Copilot, like any other AI language model, generates responses based on a combination of factors. Here are some reasons why you might observe different answers:

  1. Context and Prompt Variability: Copilot’s responses depend on the context and the specific wording of the prompt. Even slight variations in how a question is phrased can lead to different answers. Additionally, Copilot doesn’t have memory of previous interactions, so it treats each prompt independently.

  2. Randomness and Sampling: Copilot uses a probabilistic approach to generate responses. It samples from a distribution of possible answers. As a result, different runs or iterations may yield slightly different responses due to this inherent randomness.

  3. Training Data and Model Version: Copilot’s knowledge is based on the data it was trained on. If there have been updates or changes to the training data or the underlying model, it can affect the responses. Different versions of Copilot might produce varying answers.

  4. Ambiguity and Interpretation: Some questions have ambiguous meanings or multiple valid interpretations. Copilot may choose different interpretations based on the context it infers from the prompt.

  5. Search and External Information: Copilot can search the web for information. If it uses external sources, the results may vary depending on the search results at that moment.

  6. Creativity and Diversity: Copilot aims to be creative and diverse in its responses. It avoids repeating the same answer verbatim. This diversity can lead to different answers even for similar questions.

Remember that Copilot’s responses are not deterministic, and they can vary based on the factors mentioned above. If you encounter different answers, it’s a reflection of the complexity and variability of language generation by AI models.”

In other words, it’s like I went out and asked several experts to explain some phenomenon. I would expect to get different honest answers from different people that overlapped even though they might use different styles and examples. The worst case scenario would be the ancient Indian Parable of the elephant:

The parable of the blind men and the elephant is an Indian parable that has been adapted by many religions and published in various stories for adults and children. It is about a group of blind men who attempt to learn what an elephant is, each touching a different part, and disagreeing on their findings.

“In the story, six blind men touch an elephant. Although each man touches the same animal, his determination of the elephant is based only what he is able to perceive.

The man who touches the elephant's trunk thinks the elephant is a snake. The man who touches the elephant's ear thinks the elephant is a fan. The man who touches the elephant's leg thinks the elephant is a tree. The man who touches the elephant's side thinks the elephant is a wall. The man who touches the elephant's tail thinks the elephant is a rope.

The six men argue about what the elephant is, each insisting that his own perception is correct. None of them are able to see the whole picture, and so they are all wrong.

The parable of the blind men and the elephant teaches us that we should be careful not to make judgments based on limited information. We should also be open to the possibility that we may be wrong, and that there may be other perspectives that are just as valid as our own.”


Sunday, January 21, 2024

More Musings on the Introduction of AI Technology into Society



A recent article in the paper you are now reading, “Chatty robot helps seniors fight loneliness through AI companionship”. ( PR, page A6, 12/272023) triggered a melancholy recollection of  a relatively recent visit to an elderly acquaintance (elderly, only in the sense that she was and still is, older than me). She was proudly in the process of showing off her newest acquisition:  cooing and snuggling with a highly realistic, fuzzy little cat doll that mewed and/or meowed when you petted it. However, that first somewhat sorrowful reaction to an adult seduced into childlike behavior over what was no more than a souped-up toy doll --- a child’s toy --- quickly mellowed to a feeling of how cool and lifelike the robot acted and reacted. And the more I thought about it, the more I mellowed into an attitude of,  “Why not?” ---who am I to be offended by another’s harmless pleasure (an attitude I find offensive when practiced by others)?  Also, how is the mode and delivery of this enjoyable activity different from interacting with a real live pet (which by the way doesn't have to be fed and cleaned up after).  And, the final push off my high horse was to realize that this situation seems not so much different than enjoying a good sci-fi novel like the Seven Moons of Mali or viewing a hot game on the Sports Channel? As Tevye, in “Fiddler on the Roof” has famously replied, “I’ll tell you --- I don’t know” --- but I will tell you what I do know (within reasonable bounds of certainty) and that is that technology, any technology, is borne from our curiosity and need for control in order to make our lives more pleasurable and enjoyable.  


All the same,  it is useful to also consider the admonition that “Enjoyment and Pleasure are terms often used interchangeably, but they are not the same thing. Pleasure happens to you; enjoyment is something that you create through your own effort. Pleasure is the lightheadedness you get from a bit of grain alcohol;  Enjoyment is the satisfaction of a good wine, properly understood. Pleasure is addictive and animal; 

Enjoyment is elective and human.” (Arthur Brooks, The Atlantic Magazine, MARCH 24, 2022)



So using a “chatty robot” or Chatbot as a companion for the potentially lonely came as not much of a surprise and reminded me of the initial reactions to Joseph Weizenbaum’s computer program,  “ELIZA”, one of the earliest (mid 60s), if not the first,  attempts of AI research to simulate and stimulate the man-machine conversation. All of this is described brilliantly and lucidly in Joseph  Weizenbaum’s book. “Computer Power and Human Reason --- From Judgment to Calculation”, and so I will have no reservations in quoting directly from this work and what I will be quoting is just limited to the Introduction. For those who are a bit more technically adventuresome, there are chapters on “Where the Power of the Computer Comes From” and “How Computers Work “ as well as “Artificial Intelligence”.


Early on Weizwnbaum reveals , “I chose the name ELIZA because, like the Eliza of Pygmalion fame, it could be taught to ‘speak’ increasingly well... The script is a set of rules rather like those that might be given to an actor who is to use them to improvise around a certain theme. Thus ELIZA could be given a certain script to enable it to maintain a conversation about cooking eggs or about managing a bank checking account, and so on. Each specific script thus enabled ELIZA to play a specific conversational role. For my first experiment, I gave ELIZA a script designed to permit it to play (I should really say parody) the role of a Rogerian psychotherapist engaged in an initial interview with a patient. The  Rogerian psychotherapist is relatively easy to imitate because much of his (sic) technique consists of drawing out his patient by reflecting his patient’s statements back to him.”


The most famous ELIZA transcript was published soon after in an article Weizenbaum wrote for the January, 1966, volume of Communications of the ACM. It is a record of a conversation between the program and a young woman; the program’s responses in the text below are in all caps.


Men are all alike.
IN WHAT WAY
They’re always bugging us about something or other.
CAN YOU THINK OF A SPECIFIC EXAMPLE
Well, my boyfriend made me come here.
YOU BOYFRIEND MADE YOU COME HERE
He says I’m depressed much of the time.
I AM SORRY TO HEAR YOU ARE DEPRESSED
It’s true. I am unhappy.
DO YOU THINK COMING HERE WILL HELP YOU NOT TO BE UNHAPPY
I need some help, that much seems certain.
WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO YOU IF YOU GOT SOME HELP
Perhaps I could learn to get along with my mother.
TELL ME MORE ABOUT YOUR FAMILY

There is a bit more dialogue but you get the idea...

 You can try it out for yourself at this site: https://psych.fullerton.edu/mbirnbaum/psych101/eliza.htm


If, as I did, you test it out by starting with the prompt as in the example above, “Men are all alike” don’t be surprised to find the conversation pursuing a different path as some randomness has been injected into the script at this website.


Weizenbaum goes on to note that, “I was startled to see how quickly and how very deeply people conversing with the computer  became emotionally involved and how unequivocally they anthropomorphized it. Once, my secretary who had watched me work on the program for many months and therefore surely knew it to be a computer program, started conversing with it. After only a few interchanges with it she asked  me to leave the room! “


 He was also amazed that a number of practicing psychiatrists seriously believed that the program could grow into a nearly completely automatic form of psychotherapy. He quoted from a paper by Colby et al , “Further work must be done before the program will be ready for clinical use.. If the method proves beneficial, then it would provide a therapeutic tool which can be made widely available to mental hospitals and psychiatric centers suffering a shortage of therapists. Because of the time-sharing capabilities of modern and future computers, several hundred patients an hour could be handled by a computer system designed for this purpose. The human therapist, involved in the design and operation of this system, would not be replaced, but would become a much more efficient man (sic!) since his efforts would no longer be limited to the one-to-one patient-therapist ratio as now exists.”


And in a footnote, Weizenbaum adds “ Nor is Dr Colby alone in his enthusiasm for computer administered psychotherapy. Dr. Carl Sagan,the astrophysicist, recently commented on ELIZA, “No such program is adequate for psychiatric use today but the same can be remarked about some humans psychotherapists, In a period where more and more people in our society seem to be in need of psychiatric counseling, and whe time sharing of computers is widespread, I can imagine the development of a network of computer psychotherapeutic terminals, something like arrays of large telephone booths, in which, for a few dollars a session, we would be able to talk with an attentive, tested, and largely non-directive psychotherapist”.


In response to Colby and Sagan’s interpretations of ELIZA, Weizenbaum decries, “I had thought it essential, as a prerequisite to the very possibility that one person might help another learn to cope with his emotional problems, that the helper himself participate in the other’s experience of those problems. There are undoubtedly many techniques to facilitate the therapist’s imaginative projection into the  patient's inner life. But that it was possible for even one practicing psychiatrist to advocate that this crucial component of the  therapeutic process be entirely supplanted by pure technique --- that I had not imagined! What must a psychiatrist think he is doing while treating a patient, that he can view the simplest mechanical parody of a single interviewing technique as having captured anything of the essence of a human encounter?” 



Whew... no to difficult to ascertain Weizenbaum’s  underlying attitude towards the “science” of psychotherapy!  Unfortunately, we still observe this phenomenon today when a person proposes absurd solutions to problems way outside their area of expertise, such as, for example,  a politician proposing a solution to a problem in medical science --- drinking Clorox to cure Covid comes to mind.



He contends there are important differences between men and machines as thinkers , ”I would argue that, however intelligent machines may be made to be, there are some acts of thought that ought to be attempted only by humans... I believe there are limits to what computers ought to be put to do. One socially significant question I thus intend to raise is over the proper place of computers in the social order ...We can count, but we are rapidly forgetting how to say what is worth counting and why.”


And, that last sentiment, being the purpose of this column, which is to  explore the effects of Technology on Society and vice-versa, I couldn't agree more.





Wednesday, December 13, 2023

December 2021

 


Remembrance of Things Past, Current Events and Further Evidence of Human Weakness


You may recall reading the article in the 12/05/2023 Spectrum section, “The Great Worm” by Charles Apple which recounted the story of one of the first viruses to infect the 1968 version of the Internet.  Back then it was called the ARPANET because it was funded by the Advanced Research Project Agency of the Department of Defense.  Coincidentally, I began working as a technical writer and programmer using the Arpanet via the ILLIAC IV Computer (Bouknight, W.J.; Denenberg, Stewart; McIntyre, David; Randall, J.M.; Sameh, Amed; Slotnick, Daniel (April 1972). "The Illiac IV System" (PDF). Proceedings of the IEEE. 60 (4): 369–388. )

 at the University of Illinois in 1969 and had an opportunity to observe the burgeoning growth of the nascent network into the WWW or the World Wide Web or simply,  the “Web”. 


This brought back memories of using the network to submit jobs to other computers on the network located in California rather than the local ones in Illinois to enhance turn-around time as they were two hours earlier with corresponding lighter loads.  I had an opportunity to work with some of the guiding lights in Computer Science such as Dan Slotnick, creator of the ILLIAC IV, and Doug Englebart, the creator of the mouse --- which  we all now take for granted as an input device on our desk and laptop computers.  To view one of his delightful  conference presentations, visit Youtube and  search on “Mother of All Demos” by SRI’s Doug Engelbart and Team” He also was fond of telling the story of how he traveled the world introducing various company secretaries to this new mouse technology. In one instance, after  he was asked how to use it,  he casually replied something like, “Oh, it’s intuitive, just move the mouse and the cursor will move correspondingly on your computer screen.” So she picks up the mouse and starts waving it around in the air, puzzled that the cursor on the screen is not only not moving correspondingly, but it is not moving at all!  He had to explain that the mouse had to be on its pad for it to work.  This confirmed the insight that nothing about a really new technology is intuitive! We’ve come a long way from the introduction of the earliest technology  and have had to continually learn how to use it safely and humanely --- unfortunately, not always successfully. 


Well, enough reminiscing about the “old” days --- what I have been following lately is the melodrama involving Sam Altman’s shocking dismissal from OpenAI (creator of the the first commercially available Artificial Intelligent application: ChatGPT). The drama gets juicier as we learn that he plans leaworlving to join Microsoft bringing along over 700 of the 770 OpenAI employees with him (creating a reverse company take-over,  perhaps more aptly described as a  “leave-under”).  Many twists and turns later, OpenAI announces that Altman will return as CEO and the company’s board of directors is overhauled replacing the only two women members by males setting off speculation of sex discrimination. 


Altmann’s situation  has been compared to that of the visionary Steve Jobs, who in 1976, along with his friend Stephen Wozniak, a computer engineer, founded Apple Computer in Jobs' parents' garage. "We started Apple because we wanted the product ourselves," Jobs said in 1991. "We didn't start out to build a large company. We started out to build a few dozen computers for us and our friends” After butting heads with Apple's board of directors, Jobs left the company in 1985 and started a new computer company called NeXT. Apple was struggling without Jobs, and in 1996, the company bought NeXT and hired Jobs as an adviser. He later became Apple's CEO and led the company to be one of the most profitable corporations in the world. (https://www.kcra.com/article/steve-jobs-apple-2011-death-this-day-in-history/)

Regarding Altman’s situation, “The senior employees described Altman as psychologically abusive, creating chaos at the artificial-intelligence start-up — complaints that were a major factor in the board’s abrupt decision to fire the CEO.” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/08)


Other sources suggest that the board was irked by Altman’s desire to quickly ship new products and models rather than slowing things down and being careful to emphasize safety.  Most observers, analysts, and talking-heads seem to agree that, at its core, this was a dispute between the “boomers'' and the “doomers” (the boomers being driven by the glitter of technology and the  opportunity to make a quick buck and the doomers being the ones worried about AI becoming AGI or Artificial General Intelligence whose goal is to mimic and eventually surpass human intelligence at which point conjectures range from: a) humanity is doomed and becomes slaves to the will of the machine or b) humanity and the machine merge to become super-creatures and we all live happily ever after in the New Eden we have re-created for ourselves.


The irony of the situation at OpenAI was that it was envisioned as providing a tool for all of humanity and not just its stockholders. Its Mission Statement was,

 “ OpenAI is a non-profit artificial intelligence research company. Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return. Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can better focus on a positive human impact.”  


However, this lofty intention proved to be beyond the reach of frail humanity and OpenAI submitted to what many consider to be the root of all evil: the greed for money. (personally, I think it all comes down to greed for power or control and money is just one of the means for achieving that goal...)


On a positive note, this incident could not only leave the company stronger but will draw world-wide attention to the need for the regulation of Artificial Intelligence and should strengthen the resolve to return to the original mission for all technological advances: to serve humanity.  On the other hand, it will not be an easy path to follow.  Regulation will be difficult as all of the previous and current guidelines are based on risks posed by specific applications and AI is, in and of itself, not the application but the means to effect and enhance it,  It will not be enough to have warning labels as do all drugs (Take no more than three doses per day and do no mix with Tylenol; if condition persists, immediately contact nearest System Administrator.)


Meanwhile, we human bystanders can only laugh and/or cry as our leaders struggle with yet another self-inflicted dilemma. “We are all full of weakness and errors; let us mutually pardon each other our follies - it is the first law of nature.”  (Voltaire) Pergite!


Friday, November 10, 2023

Nov 2023

 


Technology and Monopoly


 In the interest of full disclosure, everything in this article written after the heading, “Technology and Monopoly: An Intricate Dance” was produced by an AI after giving it/her/him/them...whatever,  the prompt, “relationship between technology and monopoly”.  What you are reading now was fully researched,synthesized, and created by a bona-fide human creature. 


So first, allow me (the aforementioned creature) to explain the catchy rhyming title of this piece.  What do Technology and Monopoly have in common besides the ending letter “y”  which causes them to rhyme?  One could also argue, somewhat perversely, that their opposite connotations (technology/good, monopoly/bad) serve to link them together which got me to wondering how opposites can have something in common.  After a bit of digging, I found that actually, opposites have more in common than non-opposites because they share a continuum. Aristotle's doctrine of the mean states that every virtue is a balance between two extreme behaviors, one of excess and one of deficiency. For instance, the virtue of courage is the balance between the excess of recklessness and the deficiency of cowardice. Thus, these extreme behaviors are considered as opposites. On the other hand, most  "non-opposites" are things that do not share any continuum between them. Hence, they do not have anything in common with each other.”


Now although technology and monopoly are not strictly on a continuum of any specific property,  they do share a sort of a cause-effect relationship because the introduction of any new technology into any society not only causes existential disruption but also results in an economic disruption in a market-driven economy such as ours by granting a “natural” monopoly to the creators. ( A natural monopoly is an industry or sector with high barriers to entry and start-up costs that prevent rivals from competing. As such, a natural monopoly has only one efficient player. This company may be the only provider of a product or service in an industry or geographic location. Natural monopolies can arise in industries that require unique raw materials, technology, or similar factors to operate. Examples include railways and utilities such as  water, sewer services, and electricity (Wikipedia)

 However, before proceeding, it behooves us to be sure of precisely what a plain old monopoly is and how it works before drawing any conclusions (aka “look before you leap”) 



Investopedia provides a concise description of the definition of a monopoly as well as some of its Pros and Cons:








I hadn’t thought about the economic intricacies of monopolies until this fuss about the government suing companies as well as companies suing other companies over the issue of monopolies (for much, much more information,  search on the phrase Companies accused of monopolyand you should get this:


“About 1,690,000 results Companies accused of monopoly include: Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft”  ...followed by another list of articles which not only indicate the raised interest in this issue but should satisfy even a lawyer’s curiosity.


 I was certainly not aware of the actual Pros and Cons of a Monopoly and I only have fond memories of playing the Parker Brothers version of the game of Monopoly as a kid growing up in Atlantic City, NJ. In the unhappy circumstance you have never experienced the pleasures of  playing  Monopoly, I instructed the Bing AI to explain the rules of the game, receiving the following response,


Monopoly is a classic board game designed for 2-8 players1. Here are the basic rules:

  1. Objective: The goal of the game is to bankrupt your opponents by buying property, building houses, and charging rent1.

  2. Starting the Game: Each player is given a fixed amount of play money at the start1. Players move around the board according to the throw of a pair of dice1.

  3. Buying Property: Any player who lands on an unowned property may buy it1. If a player can’t or doesn’t want to purchase it, it is auctioned off to other players2.

  4. Paying Rent: If a player lands on a property owned by another player, rent must be paid to that player1.

  5. Banker’s Role: One player is selected to be the banker, who hands out deeds, makes change, and distributes money to other players1.

  6. Winning the Game: The game ends when only one player remains

Remember, Monopoly can be a long game, especially with more players. Enjoy your game! 😊

Learn more: 1. Britannica.com  2. Bargames101.com 3. Wikihow.com”

(I’m not sure if I enjoyed or was annoyed by the smiley face}


In this version, only the Pros of unfettered Capitalism are rewarded, the goal being to drive the other players into bankruptcy, thus winning the game.


Until I did the research for this article, I did not know that the original game of Monopoly was created over one century ago,  not to extol but to expose the evils of capitalism. “In 1903, Georgist Lizzie Magie applied for a patent on a game called The Landlord's Game with the object of showing that rents enriched property owners and impoverished tenants. She knew that some people would find it hard to understand the logic behind the idea, and thought that should it be put into the concrete form of a game, it might be easier to demonstrate. She was granted the patent for the game in January 1904. “ (Wikipedia (which, by the way is now asking for well-deserved donations))


I also  discovered that while originally being banned in China as it conflicted with the values of communism, the game has been reinstated for manufacture in order for China to participate in the World Trade Organization. Never underestimate the power of greed


On a more personal note, the version of the Monopoly game that I learned to play was as a child living in Atlantic City, NJ where the streets and other common geographical features ( like the boardwalk) were named after places I already knew so like most children my age I just accepted that as another feature of my reality without giving it a thought  --- I was like  a fish unaware that I was underwater --- it just was what it was. 


 When our family moved to Washington D.C. and we were playing the game I experienced this weird feeling that the street names  weren't right, they were not the same as where I was now living.  This feeling was replaced by the staggering  insight that streets and their  names do not follow you as you move about the country. It was a simultaneous blow to my ego and a startlingly delightful insight that caused me to laugh out loud. I still smile when I think about it. The world, in fact, does not revolve around any of us, except of course, for certain politicians and other thespians who shall, for purposes of this column, remain unnamed.




Technology and Monopoly: An Intricate Dance


In a world where technology governs our daily lives, the rise of monopolies has become an unavoidable reality. Innovative products and services are often developed by tech giants, who wield vast control and power over the market. While these monopolies drive technological advancements and fuel economic growth, their dominance raises concerns about ethics, privacy, and competition.


The tech landscape is constantly evolving, with companies like Amazon, Google, and Facebook leading the way. These corporations possess the resources and influence to shape our digital experiences. They introduce groundbreaking technologies, such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and blockchain, that have the potential to revolutionize entire industries.


On one hand, these advancements contribute to the convenience and efficiency of our lives. From personalized recommendations and efficient online shopping to instant communication, the benefits are evident. However, the downside of such monopolistic control becomes apparent when competition is stifled, consumers face limited choices, and innovation is deterred.


Many argue that monopolies gain an unfair advantage through their immense data collection capabilities. With user data becoming the new gold, these tech giants have access to a treasure trove of information. They can analyze user preferences, behaviors, and habits, enabling them to deliver more tailored products and services. However, this also raises concerns about privacy and the potential for these companies to exploit personal data for their own gain.


The intersection of technology and monopoly gives rise to important questions about regulatory oversight. Governments and policymakers worldwide are grappling with the need to strike a balance between fostering innovation and safeguarding the interests of society. Antitrust laws and regulations attempt to prevent monopolies from engaging in anti-competitive practices, ensuring fair competition and protecting consumers.


Efforts to curb the power of monopolies have gained traction, with landmark cases and investigations targeting the likes of Google and Facebook. Calls for more transparency, data privacy regulations, and the promotion of healthy competition are becoming increasingly urgent. The aim is to preserve the benefits of technological innovation while avoiding the negative consequences of unchecked monopolistic dominance.


As the ever-expanding realm of technology continues to shape our lives and reshape industries, the relationship between technology and monopoly remains complex. It is a dance where innovation, convenience, and concern must find a harmonious coexistence. Striking the right balance is crucial in ensuring that technological progress benefits all, without sacrificing competition, privacy, and consumer choice.













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